Ukrainian farmers predict a decrease in harvest this year

This year, Ukraine’s agricultural sector is expected to see a roughly 10% decrease in the gross harvest of grains and industrial crops compared to last year.

This forecast was presented by the Director General of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation, Pavlo Koval, during a press conference at Ukrinform on the topic "Agricultural export of Ukraine: season results and forecasts for the 2025/26 marketing year."

“If we look at the volumes, we see that the reseeding of part of the area, reduced sowing of certain crops, and difficult weather conditions will contribute to a decrease in the gross harvest. The overall estimate is approximately minus 10% compared to last year,” Koval noted.

According to the expert, such changes are associated not only with a challenging growing season, but also with general trends in crop structure. Thus, this year the area of ​​soybeans has decreased, and the area under sugar beets has shrunk to approximately 220 thousand hectares, compared to last year’s 250 thousand hectares. In addition, due to prolonged spring frosts, farmers have partially reseeded winter barley and wheat.

Regarding certain areas, such as berry growing, Koval believes that the reduction in the harvest in the fruit and berry sectors may be even greater than in grain crops.

He expressed cautious optimism about the second half of the year in terms of harvest and potential records.

“We might get a late bloomer among the crops, but overall this year will probably not be a record for the industry. Yes, the May rains have improved the situation somewhat, but the weather in the summer and autumn may make adjustments,” the expert noted.

He also commented on the current trade regime with the EU, noting that Ukraine may lose up to 3.5 billion euros. According to Koval, this will especially affect business and investment projects that have already invested in infrastructure, safety and product quality to enter the European market.

However, Pavlo Koval believes that Ukrainian farmers should continue to fight for their positions in the European market, as this opens up more prospects for joint exports to Africa, Asia and other regions.

As of May 30, farmers across all regions of Ukraine had sown 5.5 million hectares of spring grain and leguminous crops, which is 97% of the projected area.

IC UAC according to Ukrinform