Pavlo Koval: Nearly 90% of Ukraine's Agricultural Exports Depend on Maritime Shipping, While Alternative Routes Cannot Fully Compensate

Russia's intensified attacks on Ukraine's port infrastructure and civilian vessels in the Black Sea have already had a significant impact on the country's agricultural export logistics. As security risks continue to escalate, foreign vessels have temporarily suspended calls at Ukrainian ports, creating serious challenges for the export of the new harvest.

Pavlo Koval, Director General of the Ukrainian Agribusiness Confederation (UAC), shared these assessments in an interview with Deutsche Welle.

According to Koval, Ukraine's agricultural sector is already suffering direct economic losses. Port infrastructure is being damaged, commercial vessels are coming under attack, and hostilities have expanded to the Danube shipping route. As a result, domestic grain prices have declined, while prices on international markets have moved in the opposite direction.

"Today, wheat in Ukraine is being sold directly from the field at around UAH 6,000 per tonne, including VAT. For farms with lower yields—many of which have already suffered from spring frosts and severe winter weather—this translates into direct financial losses," Koval said.

The UAC Director General stressed that there is currently no official blockade of Ukrainian ports. Ukraine has imposed no restrictions on navigation; however, the continuing Russian attacks have significantly increased the risks for shipowners, effectively preventing vessels from entering Ukrainian ports for cargo loading.

Assessing the capacity of alternative export routes, Koval noted that neither rail transport, road haulage nor the Danube ports are capable of fully replacing maritime exports.

According to him, even at their peak, all overland and river transport routes combined handled only 3–5 million tonnes of cargo per month, while Ukraine needs to export 5–6.5 million tonnes during periods of intensive grain shipments.

Additional challenges include Russian strikes on Danube port infrastructure, historically low water levels in the Danube River, and political risks affecting transit routes through several European Union member states.

Despite the logistical difficulties, Koval remains optimistic about this year's harvest. As of late July, Ukraine had already harvested approximately 11–12 million tonnes of grain, including more than 6 million tonnes of wheat. This volume is sufficient to ensure the country's domestic food security.

"We will harvest what has been grown. The real challenge is preserving the grain—preventing it from being destroyed in the fields or at storage facilities damaged by enemy attacks—and ensuring that exports can continue in a steady and predictable manner," Koval emphasized.

IC UAC according to the Deutsche Welle article "Ukrainian Grain Without the Sea: What Lies Ahead for Exports?"