Wheat Falls to One-Month Low as U.S. Inventory Estimate Raised

Wheat futures fell to a one-month low after the government forecast larger stockpiles in the U.S., the world’s biggest exporter.

Inventories will total 1.001 billion bushels on May 31, up from a February estimate of 981 million bushels, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report. Consumption for food, livestock feed and exports will be 1 percent less than forecast last month, the USDA said.

“The magic billion-bushel mark -- that has to be looked at as bearish,” said Jason Britt, the president of Central States Commodities in Kansas City, Missouri.

Wheat futures for May delivery fell 8 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $4.815 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, after touching $4.78, the lowest price since Feb. 9. The most-active contract declined 11 percent this year, partly because of slack demand for U.S. grain and rising global inventories.

About 920 million bushels will be used to make food, down 2.1 percent from last month’s forecast of 1.987 billion bushels, the USDA said. An estimated 170 million bushels will go into livestock feed and 825 million bushels will be exported, both projections unchanged from February, according to the USDA.

Wheat stockpiles in France, Europe’s biggest producer, probably will be larger than expected as farmers use more corn and barley to feed livestock, FranceAgriMer said today. At the end of June, inventories are expected to be 3.99 million metric tons, the industry group said. That’s up from 3.92 million forecast last month.

Egypt, the world’s biggest importer, said today it bought 120,000 tons of French and Russian wheat, shunning U.S. supplies. The grain is for delivery between May 16 and May 31, said Nomani Nomani, the vice chairman of the General Authority for Supply Commodities.

Wheat is the fourth-biggest U.S. crop, valued at $10.6 billion in 2009, behind corn, soybeans and hay, government data show.

By Tony C. Dreibus
Source: Bloomberg