USDA releases bullish corn, soybean data

The U.S. 2015 corn and soybean crop sizes did not increase as much as the trade expected, and the amount of those crops being stored did not build as much either, according to the USDA Tuesday.As a result, the CME Group’s corn, soybean, and wheat markets have spiked higher. At the close, the March corn futures settled 5 cents higher at $3.56 3/4. March soybean futures closed 13 1/4 cents higher at $8.74. 


March wheat futures ended 12 1/4 cents higher at $4.81 1/4. March soymeal futures settled $5.70 per short ton higher at $275.60. March soyoil futures closed $0.07 lower at $29.18.  
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Crude oil market is $1.30 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 16 higher.

In its January Supply/Demand and Crop Production Reports, the USDA lowered its U.S. 2015/16 soybean carryout from its November estimate of 465 million bushels to 440 million bushels, and below the average trade estimate of 468 million bushels.

For corn, the U.S. 2015/16 carryout is seen at 1.802 billion bushels, compared with the average trade estimate of 1.785 billion bushels, equal to the USDA’s last estimate in November.

The U.S. 2015/16 wheat carryout is pegged at 915 million bushels, compared with the USDA’s previous estimate of 911 million bushels and the average trade estimate of 919 million.

Production

In its report, U.S. 2015 average corn yield is estimated at 168.4 bushels per acre vs. the average trade estimate of 169.5 bushels per acre, and below its November estimate of 169.3. For soybeans, the U.S. 2015 average soybean yield is estimated at 48.0 bushels per acre, compared with the average trade estimate of 48.5 bushels per acre vs. the USDA’s November estimate of 48.3 bushels per acre.

Quarterly Stocks

On Tuesday, the USDA pegs corn stocks, as of December 1, at 11.212 billion bushels, compared with the average trade estimate of 11.237 billion bushels.

USDA sees the soybean stocks at 2.175 billion bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 2.72 billion bushels.

For wheat, the USDA sees quarterly stocks at 1.7 billion bushels compared with the average trade estimate of 1.698 billion bushels.

World Numbers

USDA pegged the 2016 Brazilian soybean crop at 100 million metric tons, unchanged from its previous estimate. Argentina’s 2016 soybean production was estimated at 57.0 mmt.

In Tuesday’s WASDE Report, the world corn ending stocks estimate dropped by 3.0 million metric tons. Also, the world soybean ending stocks were dropped by 3.0 million metric tons.

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities, Inc., says that the January data has changed the markets psychology to not as negative.

“As a result of the friendly reports, every farmer is going to be happy today,” Roose says. "We’re not thinking the market is going to fall as much, compared with what we were thinking 30 days ago.”

UAC Information Center by information Agriculture.com