Brazil 09-10 Soy Estimate Between 62.5M-63.6M Tons

National Commodities Supply Corp., or Conab, on Thursday estimated Brazil’s 2009-10 record-breaking soy crop at between 62.5 million metric tons and 63.6 million metric tons.

Conab’s second crop estimate for the 2009-10 soy crop is in a range of between 9.5% and 11.4% above the 2008-09 crop of 57 million tons.

Conab’s latest estimate is a slight increase from its prior estimate in October of between 62.3 million tons and 63.3 million tons.

The upper range of Conab’s estimate is in line with Brazilian Vegetable Oils Industry Association’s estimate this week of 63.5 million tons.

Conab, which is part of Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture, said the area of land devoted to soy will be between 22.4 million hectares and 22.7 million hectares in 2009-10, compared with 21.7 million hectares in 2008-09.

Most industry participants also peg the soy crop in the range of 63 million to 64 million tons.

Brazilian producers are currently planting their 2009-10 soy crops.
“Everything seems to be moving towards a record crop for 2009-10 and certainly much higher than last year,” said Steve Cachia, an analyst at consultancy Cerealpar in Parana.

He said that although planting was slowed in the south by recent rains, the planting is now gathering pace and will catch-up. While in the center-west soy belt, weather has helped farmers plant their soy even earlier than usual, he said. “So far, everything is going well,” he said.

Conab maintained its previous estimate in October for Mato Grosso, Brazil’s No. 1 soy-growing state, at between 17.9 million tons and 18.2 million tons in 2009-10 compared to 18 million tons in 2008-09.
Mato Grosso’s farmers are expected to plant between 5.9 million hectares and 6 million hectares with soy in 2009-10 compared to 5.8 million hectares in 2008-09.

Conab’s estimate for Parana, Brazil’s No. 2 soy producing state, also remained steady from last month at between 12.8 million tons and 13 million tons in 2009-10 compared to 9.5 million tons last season when drought hampered the crop.

Parana’s farmers are expected to plant soy on between 4.3 million hectares and 4.4 million hectares in 2009-10 compared to 4 million hectares in 2008-09.

Source: CME Group