Black Sea Wheat Prices May Fall To $155-$160/Ton - Executive

Black sea wheat prices are likely to be under pressure this year amid large inventories and may test $155-$160 a metric ton, free-on-board, a senior industry executive has said.

Milling-wheat of Black Sea origin is currently being offered around $178/ton, FOB.

“The European Union and Black Sea wheat surplus for 2010-11 is large, the total grains situation is comfortable too and can ensure lower flat price testing $155-$160 lows,” Mohamed Aboul Kheir, senior trader, Cargill International SA said addressing the World Grains Trade Summit here Wednesday organized by Centre for Management Technology.

He said exchange rates to the U.S. dollar will play a major role to define the floor price in the Black Sea cash market.

Many countries which were importing wheat in 2008 are either no longer in the market or have reduced their purchases. He said this has brought down the global trade in milling wheat to 102 million tons in 2009-10 from 114 million tons year-earlier.

Geneva-based Mohamed said in 2010-11 global milling wheat trade is unlikely to recover and is expected little changed at 102 million-103 million tons.

CME Group