Ukraine hopes to export its cereal to the EU by the next harvest

Ukraine hopes to sell stockpiled grain across its border with the European Union (EU) after agricultural exports fell by a third in April and before the start of the new harvest, while the route from Black Sea ports remains blocked by Russia.

The volume of grain exports from Ukraine decreased from 6.7 million tons in March to 5.3 million tons in April, the State Customs Service reports.

Some of the grain accumulates in queues along the border, which increased after several neighboring countries decided to block the import of Ukrainian grain (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Bulgaria) and its transit (Poland) to other countries of the European Union.

Reaction to the decision of the EC

Exports are expected to partially resume after the European Commission banned exports of Ukrainian wheat and corn, as well as rapeseed and sunflower to Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria, but confirmed they can move freely to other member states.

Earlier, experts warned that Ukraine risked not being able to export 12 million tons of the past harvest in time to empty granaries and make them ready for the next one.

Vice-President of the Kyiv School of Economics, Oleg Nivyevskyi, said on the Telegram social network on Wednesday that the EC decision recognizes that Ukrainian grain is not the reason for the price decline.

However, this decision was a serious failure, as it did not remove the uncertainty about the future of Ukrainian grain exports to the EU, which causes concern among Ukrainian farmers.

The expert believes that the ban on grain exports to five EU countries will probably be extended in June.

The ban is a "blow to Ukraine" because its agriculture is one of the main sources of financing for the country at war. While the agricultural and food sector of the neighbouring 5 countries is only 2% to 5% of their GDP. This decision will support Russia in its sabotage of the grain export deal.

Ukraine accuses Russia of sabotaging the grain agreement

According to UN data, the amount of grain exported from three Ukrainian Black Sea ports last week was the lowest in 2023. Only 11 ships with 450,000 tons of grain left the ports, which is 4 ships and 31% less than the previous week.

The "grain corridor" operation continues to be ineffective due to the Russian blockade of ship inspections. On some days, the Istanbul Coordination Center did not carry out inspections, on other days the Russian side did not give permission for any ship from the list agreed with the UN and Turkey.

According to the spokesman of the Odesa regional administration, Serhiy Bratchuk, who spoke to the press on Tuesday about the Russian "sabotage" of the grain agreement, one of the ships blocked in one of the ports works for the UN World Food Program and is intended to deliver Ukrainian grain to low-income countries.

Even before the current worsening of the situation, the corridor was operating at less than half of its capacity, on average less than three vessels were inspected per day, while logistics allows for the release of about seven ships daily, Pavlo Koval, Director General of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation, told EFE.

Pavlo Koval emphasized that Ukrainian Black Sea ports remain the main export routes, responsible for more than half of the grain (compared to 90% before the invasion). Despite the efforts to increase the flow of cargo through the western borders since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation, the logistical capacity of the neighbouring EU countries remains insufficient.

As the Turkish news agency Anadolu reports, today, 05.05.2023, multilateral negotiations on the extension and validity of the grain export agreement are to be held.

While Ukraine insists the deal was extended for 120 days in March, Russia says it only agreed to a 60-day extension that expires on May 18.

Earlier, Moscow stated that the extension of the agreement depends on the lifting of some international sanctions against companies related to the export of its agricultural products.

IC UAC according to EFE