Top UN Diplomat: Final Climate Deal May Wait Until Late 2010

Ministers meeting at a major international climate summit next month may reach an agreement on emissions reduction targets and financing, but a final deal isn’t expected until at least early 2010, the U.N.’s top climate negotiator said Thursday.

Janos Pasztor, director of U.N. Secretary-General Ban ki-Moon’s climate change support team, said if the U.S. didn’t sign a bill into law in the first half of the year, however, a binding international accord could be delayed into late 2010.

“The fact that we cannot come to a conclusion on the legally binding treaty at Copenhagen doesn’t mean that we’re lowering the bar,” Pasztor said on a teleconference with reporters. “Governments will reach an agreement in Copenhagen on the key issues.”

However, many analysts remain skeptical.

“I find this difficult to believe,” said Michael Levi, a senior energy expert at the Council on Foreign Relations. “President Obama will make his job on Capitol Hill much more difficult if he agrees to a target at Copenhagen.”

Without a solid commitment on an emissions target or financing package, Levi said it’s highly unlikely China or other developing nations will make any concrete promises either.

Negotiators had originally hoped to seal a final deal at the U.N. climate summit in Denmark. But despite intense discussions in the past year between the major participating countries, the parties have yet to resolve fundamental differences on targets for greenhouse gas emissions cuts and funding for developing countries.

Developing economies such as China and India want rich countries such as the U.S. to promise stricter emissions reductions while sending billions of dollars a year to finance climate change adaptation and to transform energy use to low-carbon sources. Developed nations want the growing countries to agree to set longerterm emissions goals and stringent accountability standards to ensure greenhouse gases ultimately stabilize.

Although the U.S. House has passed a climate bill this year, Senate approval of a landmark bill to cut greenhouse gases remains a significant challenge. The environment committee last week passed a version, but key Democratic Senators who plan to revise the bill have said major action on the legislation isn’t likely until next year.

Even so, lawmakers plan to send to Copenhagen an outline of legislation that could come to the Senate floor for a vote early next year, as a measure of Congressional intent. Also, the Obama administration’s Environmental Protection Agency is expected to soon officially declare greenhouse gases a public danger, a precursor for emissions regulations if Congress doesn’t ultimately act.

Pasztor said negotiations are getting a boost ahead of the Copenhagen summit as heads of state gather at several different events around the globe. Climate and clean energy will be a top priority for U.S. President Barack Obama when he meets next week with his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao in Beijing ahead of an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting.

“We’re not there yet, we have a lot of hard work ahead of us, but with all that intensity ... we’re bound to get there,” Pasztor said.

Source: CME Group