Brazilian soybean harvest advances to the final stretch

The harvest of the new Brazilian soybean crop had another week of good progress and is now entering the final stretch.

With a little moist climate, farm machines were able to advance well in most of the growing states, mainly in Rio Grande do Sul, where there was a good recovery of the accumulated delays.

According to research carried out by SAFRAS & Mercado, by April 28, 94.5% had been reaped from a total sown area of 44.069 mln hectares, equivalent to approximately 41.650 mln hectares. The previous week, the percentage was 91.1%. In the same period of the previous year, the percentage was 93.8%. The five-year average for the period is 95.4%.

In Rio Grande do Sul, out of a total sown area of 6.57 mln hectares, 71% were reaped, or approximately 4.665 mln hectares. The previous week, the percentage was 54%. In the same period last year, the percentage was 69%. The five-year average for the period is 85.0%.

In Paraná, from a total area of 5.78 mln hectares sown, 99% were reaped, or the equivalent of approximately 5.722 mln hectares. The previous week, the percentage was 99%. In the same period last year, the percentage was 99%, while the five-year average for the period is 99.4%.

In Mato Grosso, from a total sown area of 11.98 mln hectares, 100% were reaped. The previous week, the percentage was 100%. In the same period last year, the percentage was 100%. The five-year average for the period is 100%.

In Mato Grosso do Sul, 100% were reaped from a total sown area of 4.12 mln hectares. The week before, the percentage was 100%. In the same period last year, 100% had been reaped, while the five-year average for the period is 100%.

In Goiás, from a total sown area of 4.46 mln hectares, 100% were reaped. The week before, the percentage was 100%. In the same period last year, 100% had been reaped. The five-year average for the period is 99.8%.

In São Paulo, out of a total sown area of 1.35 mln hectares, 100% were reaped. The week earlier, the percentage was 99%. In the same period last year, 99% had been reaped. The five-year average for the period is 99.6%.

In Minas Gerais, 99% were reaped, or the equivalent of approximately 2.079 mln hectares of a total sown area of 2.1 mln hectares. The previous week, the percentage was 99%. In the same period last year, 99% had been reaped, while the five-year average for the period is 99.6%.

In Bahia, out of a total sown area of 1.95 mln hectares, 99% were reaped, or approximately 1.931 mln hectares. The previous week, the percentage was 95%. In the same period of the previous year, 99% had been reaped. The five-year average for the period is 86.0%.

The weather forecast maps again point to a period of low moisture over most of the country’s growing states in the period between April 28 and May 4, which must once again allow for a good advance of farm machines and the completion of work in several states.

In the period between May 5 and 11, conditions must be very similar, maintaining favorable conditions for the harvest progress.

Soybean prices fell sharply in April, pressured by a combination of negative factors. Even with declining prices, growers traded more, taking advantage of rare moments of rebounds and in fear of even more consistent losses. Premiums, dollar, and CBOT futures contracts had poor performance, forming a bearish scenario for the physical market and exports.

The combination of ample supply from Brazil, as a result of the advance of the harvest and yields exceeding expectations – which resulted in the production of 155 mln tons – and a start of planting without major problems in the United States weighed on futures prices in Chicago. The July contract ended the month down 3.81% at USD 14.19 per bushel.

Another important factor for the composition of internal prices, the exchange rate was also unfavorable to growers over the month, mainly in the last few days. The dollar dropped 1.60% in April, closing below BRL 5.00. At the close of April 28, the US currency was pegged at BRL 4.9880.

For May, the picture is not likely to change much. Even with the end of the harvest in Brazil, there is plenty of soybeans available. Attention turns to the weather market in the United States and crop development. So far, the weather has behaved well. Now growers had better wait for rebounding moments to negotiate.

IC UAC according to SAFRAS & Mercado