Global corn deficit could be the largest in more than 30 years

Global corn consumption in 2026/27 could exceed production by nearly 30 mln tons, which would be the largest deficit in more than three decades. This is indicated by the latest USDA estimates, despite expectations for the second-largest corn crop in US history.

The tighter global balance is mainly linked to lower production in other key exporting countries. Combined corn and wheat output among major suppliers could post its largest volume decline since 1993/94, limiting exportable supply available to the global market.

Additional pressure is coming from logistics disruptions in the Black Sea region. Even with high wheat stocks in Ukraine and Russia, shipment disruptions are reducing the effective availability of grain to the world market.

A structural issue is the slow expansion of grain acreage. Over the past 25 years, oilseed area in major exporting countries has more than doubled, while grain area has increased by only around 5%, making the market increasingly dependent on strong yields.

In Brazil, rising domestic corn use for ethanol production is also reducing export potential even in years of large harvests. As a result, the global market is entering the season with a smaller supply cushion, while prices remain sensitive to weather and logistics risks.

IC UAC according to ukragroconsult [2]