Ukraine does not expect a Black Sea ceasefire in the coming months

Ukraine currently sees no positive signs of a possible ceasefire in the Black Sea that could help stabilize grain exports. Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi told Bloomberg that a significant improvement in the situation is unlikely in the coming months, meaning the country has to prepare for continued critical conditions for maritime logistics.

According to Vysotskyi, countries facilitating talks have informed Kyiv that Russia has so far rejected all proposals put forward by Ukraine’s partners regarding the Black Sea. At the same time, Turkey and other countries continue to discuss the possible restoration of a safe grain corridor, but no specific mechanism has yet been agreed.

Amid attacks on port infrastructure, Ukraine has increased the use of alternative export routes. The government estimates that these routes currently handle around 45% of the required agricultural export volume, while their maximum capacity is about 50%. This means that around 30 mln tons of agricultural commodities could remain unexported in 2026/27 MY.

The European Union is considering various routes to support Ukrainian agricultural exports. Ukraine also requested €220 mln in support for farmers and a separate liquidity mechanism from the European Commission, but the request was rejected. Instead, the agricultural sector is expected to rely on a $250 mln low-interest World Bank loan.

Kyiv has also asked the EU to increase tariff-free quotas for bioethanol and sugar in 2027. If access to the European market is expanded successfully, Ukraine plans to seek higher quotas for other agricultural products as well in an effort to partly offset export constraints in the Black Sea.

IC UAC according to ukragroconsult [2]