Sowing Campaign 2026: Weather Shifts, Labor Shortages and Initial Harvest Forecasts — Interview with Pavlo Koval

Pavlo Koval, Director General of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation (UAC), provided an in-depth analysis of Ukraine’s spring sowing campaign during an interview on Ukrainian Radio. The discussion focused on the impact of abnormal weather conditions, the escalating labor shortage, and diverging forecasts for the upcoming harvest. Below is an extended summary of the key points from the interview.

— Mr. Koval, how have this spring’s weather conditions affected the sowing campaign schedule? How critical is the delay?

— We repeatedly warned that this season would be challenging, and these forecasts have unfortunately materialized. The main objective factor that cannot be avoided is the weather. This year, even in the southern regions, sowing began 10–14 days later than usual. The campaign then gained momentum across the country, but was once again suspended due to cold temperatures, as the soil failed to warm to the required temperature at the necessary depth.

Our colleagues from the Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv regions managed to sow around 30% of the planned corn and sunflower acreage before being forced to halt operations for four to five days. The delay currently averages 7–10 days and is likely to persist. Compared to the previous four to five years, by mid-May we typically had 85–90% of these crops sown, whereas this year the figure stands at only 55–60%. If weather conditions remain favorable and sufficient rainfall continues, we expect to reach the final stage of the campaign by the end of the month.

— Apart from delays in sowing, did the spring frosts cause significant damage?

— Yes, the late frosts affected different parts of Ukraine unevenly, but they certainly left their mark. In some farms, winter barley and rapeseed crops suffered frost damage. In certain cases, rapeseed fields that had already started flowering had to be disked over completely.

The fruit and vegetable sector, especially early stone fruits, was also significantly affected. Orchard owners report that low temperatures prevented cherries and apricots from forming seed cavities. In other words, the fruit may develop, but without a pit. While this is not critical for commercial production itself, the damage to the fruit set indicates that market supply could be limited. As a result, prices are likely to remain at levels that incentivize growers to continue production.

— Do these weather fluctuations threaten the country’s food security? What are the current dynamics of fieldwork?

— In terms of food security related to staple agricultural crops, there are currently no objective reasons for concern. As soon as weather conditions allow farmers to enter the fields, operations resume at full speed across the country. The pace of work is extremely high: within just the last week, farmers sowed more than 1.2 million hectares of corn, roughly the same area of sunflower, and about 500,000 hectares of soybeans. This represents an enormous volume of work completed within a very short timeframe.

— You mentioned the intensive pace of work, but who is ensuring it amid the labor shortage? How is agribusiness coping with this challenge?

— The labor shortage has not disappeared; it remains one of the most acute challenges facing the sector. Despite soaring input costs, the lack of workforce is what forces farmers to radically adapt their schedules. Mechanized operators’ shifts have increased from 10 to 16 hours. Farmers often joke: “We already work 25 hours a day. Where do we find the extra hour? We simply wake up an hour earlier.”

We must openly acknowledge the broader trend: since the start of the full-scale war in 2022, each subsequent sowing campaign has become more difficult, not easier. Organizationally and economically, every season places even greater pressure on agricultural producers, requiring extraordinary efforts just to complete the campaign.

— Considering all these factors, what preliminary forecasts can be made regarding the future harvest?

— At present, the expert community remains divided in its assessments. For example, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers cautious forecasts, expecting a certain decline in Ukraine’s gross harvest and export potential. Meanwhile, leading Ukrainian analytical platforms suggest a somewhat different scenario. According to their estimates, favorable soil moisture reserves across many regions could allow corn production, for instance, to exceed last year’s levels.

However, delayed sowing of crops such as corn creates another systemic risk — a shift in harvesting timelines. If autumn turns out to be prolonged and rainy again, as it was last year, we may face immature and excessively wet grain. This would lead to substantial additional costs for harvesting and drying grain to commercial standards.

In fact, the consequences of last year’s rainy autumn are still visible today: a number of enterprises were only finishing the harvesting of corn that had overwintered in the fields as late as May, and practically the next day they had to prepare those same fields for the new sowing campaign.

IC UAC according to Ukrainian Radio [2] [broadcast from 21:13]